The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies

The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies

Diffusion of New Technology; Case study: Chemical Fertilizer and Tractor in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
Abstract
While invention is happening at a point in time but its diffusion and penetration into the society is gradual and slow; consequently having impact on growth and productivity of the economy. Gradual diffusion of new technology into the society depends on the process of cost benefit analysis of its potential adaptors. The benefits of new technology to the people are happening in the future while they are different in term of taste, preference, degree of briskness and access to the information. Consequently, the speed of penetration and diffusion of new technology into the society would be at different time horizon. Thus, if we plot the stock of recipients with respect to time usually we get an S shaped curve. The economic and noneconomic factors have role in the shape and position of the curve. This article is looking for into the economic reason of formation of the S curve penetration of chemical fertilizer and tractor-as new technology-into the rural people of iran.income, price of new technology, interest rate as well as the main factors in the formation of the curve.
Keywords

منابع

الف - فارسی

1 -                        سالنامه آماری کشور ـ مرکز آمار ایران ـ سال‌های مختلف
2 -                        ترازنامه بانک مرکزی ـ بانک مرکزی ـ سال‌های مختف
3 -                        نتایج آمارگیری کشاورزی ـ مرکز آمار ایران ـ سال‌های آمارگیری شده
4 -                        نتایج تفصیلی سرشماری‌های نفوس و مسکن کشور ـ مرکز آمار ایران
5 -                        آمار نامه کشاورزی ـ وزارت جهاد کشاورزی و وزارت کشاورزی سابق ـ سال‌های مختلف

ب- لاتین

6 -      Alan, L. Olmstead, P. and Rhode, W. , "The Diffusion of Tractor inU. S Agricultures 1910-1960"; NBER WP 7947, 2000.
7 -      Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson,"Institutions as the Fundamental of Long Run Growth"; Hand Book of Economic Growth, North Holland, 2005.
8 -      Bain, A. D, "The Growth of T. V. Ownership in UK"; International Economic Review, 1962, No. 3 PP 145-157.
9 -      Bass, F. M. ,"A New Product Growth Model for Customer Durables"; Management Science, 1969, No. 15 PP 215-227.
10 -   Casselli, F. and Coleman, W. , "Cross-Country Technology Diffusion- The Case of Computers"; American Economic Review,2001, No. 91(2), PP 328-335.
11 -   Diego C. and Bart H. , "An Exploration of Technology Diffusion "; NBER WP12314,2006.
12 -   Diego C. and Bart H. , Appropriate Technology and Growth Quarterly Journal of Economic, 2005, No. 113، PP. 1025.
13 -   Dixi, A. and Pindyek, R. , " Investment Under Uncertainty"; PrincetonUniversity Press, 1994.
14 -   Geroski, P. A. , " Models of Technology Diffusion"; Research Policy, 2000, No. 24 PP 603-625.
15 -   Griliches, Z. , "Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics ofTechnological Change"; Econometrica, 1957, No. 48 PP 501- 522.
16 -   Karshenas, M. and Stoneman, P. , "A Flexible Model of Technological Diffusion Incor porating Economic Factors With anApplication to Spread of Colour T. V Ownership in the UK"; Journal of Forecasting, 1992, No. 11 PP 577-601.
17 -   Kennickell, A. and Kwast, M. , " Who Use Electronic Banking? Results From the 1995 Survey of Consumers' Finances"; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System"; Finance and Economic Discussion Paper Servies, 1997/35.
18 -   Lehr, W. and Lichtenberg, I. , "Computer Use and Productivity th in US Federal Government Agencies, 1987-1992"; Journal of Industrial Economic, 1998, No. XLVI(2) PP 257-279.
19 -   Mansfield, E. , " Industrial Robots in Japan and U. S "; Research Policy, 1989, No. 18 PP. 183-192.
20 -   Ruigrok, W. ; Pelligrew, A. ; Peck, S. and Whittington,R. , "Corporate Restructuring and New Forms of Organizing Evidence From Europe"; Management International Review, 1999, No. 2 PP41-64.
21 -   Stoneman, P. , "The Rate of Imitation, Learning, and Profitability"; Economic Letters, 1980, No. 6, PP 179-183.
22 -   Stoneman, P. , "The Economics of Technological Diffusion";Blackwell Publishers, 2000, PP149-171.
23 -   Vickery, G. and Northcott, J. , "Diffusion of Microelectronics and Advanced Manufacturing Technology: A Review of National Surveys"; Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1995, No. 3 PP 253-276.
 
 

منابع

الف - فارسی

1 -                        سالنامه آماری کشور ـ مرکز آمار ایران ـ سال‌های مختلف
2 -                        ترازنامه بانک مرکزی ـ بانک مرکزی ـ سال‌های مختف
3 -                        نتایج آمارگیری کشاورزی ـ مرکز آمار ایران ـ سال‌های آمارگیری شده
4 -                        نتایج تفصیلی سرشماری‌های نفوس و مسکن کشور ـ مرکز آمار ایران
5 -                        آمار نامه کشاورزی ـ وزارت جهاد کشاورزی و وزارت کشاورزی سابق ـ سال‌های مختلف

ب- لاتین

6 -      Alan, L. Olmstead, P. and Rhode, W. , "The Diffusion of Tractor inU. S Agricultures 1910-1960"; NBER WP 7947, 2000.
7 -      Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson,"Institutions as the Fundamental of Long Run Growth"; Hand Book of Economic Growth, North Holland, 2005.
8 -      Bain, A. D, "The Growth of T. V. Ownership in UK"; International Economic Review, 1962, No. 3 PP 145-157.
9 -      Bass, F. M. ,"A New Product Growth Model for Customer Durables"; Management Science, 1969, No. 15 PP 215-227.
10 -   Casselli, F. and Coleman, W. , "Cross-Country Technology Diffusion- The Case of Computers"; American Economic Review,2001, No. 91(2), PP 328-335.
11 -   Diego C. and Bart H. , "An Exploration of Technology Diffusion "; NBER WP12314,2006.
12 -   Diego C. and Bart H. , Appropriate Technology and Growth Quarterly Journal of Economic, 2005, No. 113، PP. 1025.
13 -   Dixi, A. and Pindyek, R. , " Investment Under Uncertainty"; PrincetonUniversity Press, 1994.
14 -   Geroski, P. A. , " Models of Technology Diffusion"; Research Policy, 2000, No. 24 PP 603-625.
15 -   Griliches, Z. , "Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics ofTechnological Change"; Econometrica, 1957, No. 48 PP 501- 522.
16 -   Karshenas, M. and Stoneman, P. , "A Flexible Model of Technological Diffusion Incor porating Economic Factors With anApplication to Spread of Colour T. V Ownership in the UK"; Journal of Forecasting, 1992, No. 11 PP 577-601.
17 -   Kennickell, A. and Kwast, M. , " Who Use Electronic Banking? Results From the 1995 Survey of Consumers' Finances"; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System"; Finance and Economic Discussion Paper Servies, 1997/35.
18 -   Lehr, W. and Lichtenberg, I. , "Computer Use and Productivity th in US Federal Government Agencies, 1987-1992"; Journal of Industrial Economic, 1998, No. XLVI(2) PP 257-279.
19 -   Mansfield, E. , " Industrial Robots in Japan and U. S "; Research Policy, 1989, No. 18 PP. 183-192.
20 -   Ruigrok, W. ; Pelligrew, A. ; Peck, S. and Whittington,R. , "Corporate Restructuring and New Forms of Organizing Evidence From Europe"; Management International Review, 1999, No. 2 PP41-64.
21 -   Stoneman, P. , "The Rate of Imitation, Learning, and Profitability"; Economic Letters, 1980, No. 6, PP 179-183.
22 -   Stoneman, P. , "The Economics of Technological Diffusion";Blackwell Publishers, 2000, PP149-171.
23 -   Vickery, G. and Northcott, J. , "Diffusion of Microelectronics and Advanced Manufacturing Technology: A Review of National Surveys"; Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1995, No. 3 PP 253-276.
 
 
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