نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران.

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران.

10.22096/esp.2024.1974311.1674

چکیده

تورم به‌عنوان یکی از مشکلات بنیادی کشورهای کمتر توسعه‌یافته است که به خاطر تبعات اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی و سیاسی گسترده‌ای که دارد، همواره به‌عنوان یک چالش بزرگ پیش ‌روی سیاست‌گذاران مطرح بوده است. در تحقیق حاضر به تبیین پول ایده‌آل جان نش پرداختیم و با توجه به اینکه رسیدن به پول ایده آل موردنظر جان‌نش و دستیابی به نرخ تورم صفر به خصوص در اقتصادهای کشورهای در حال توسعه از جمله ایران با تنگناهایی مواجه و همچنین نظرات متناقضی در ادبیات اقتصاد پولی در این ارتباط وجود دارد،  از این رو در این پژوهش سعی شده است تا با برآورد سطح آستانه و بهینه تورم، به سطح تورم ایده آل و مدنظر جان نش نزدیک و پیامدهای اقتصادی آن را بررسی کنیم. از این رو در چارچوب مدل رگرسیون سری زمانی آستانه­­ای و غیرخطی در بازه 1399-1338 برای اقتصاد ایران، نتایج تحقیق  نشان­دهنده آن است که سطح آستانه و بهینه تورم در اقتصاد ایران بین 10 تا 12  درصد می­باشد. از این رو پیشنهاد می­شود تا دولت و بانک مرکزی با اتخاذ سیاست­های پولی و مالی مناسب، سطح تورم و واقعی را به سطح بهینه آن نزدیک تا از این رشد اقتصادی را افزایش و رفاه جامعه را حداکثر نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Concept of Ideal Money and How to Achieve it by Estimating the Optimal and Threshold Level of Inflation: A Case Study of Iran’s Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Davoud Mahmoudinia 1
  • Somayeh Sardini 2

1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran.

2 Master's Degree in Economics, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Inflation is one of the fundamental problems of less developed countries, which has always been a big challenge for policy makers due to its wide economic, social, cultural and political consequences. In this research, we explained John Nash's ideal money, and considering that reaching the ideal money desired by Nash and achieving zero inflation rate, especially in the economies of developing countries, including Iran, are facing bottlenecks, therefore in this research by estimating the threshold and optimal level of inflation, it has been tried to be close to the ideal and considered level of inflation and to examine its economic consequences. Hence, in the framework of the threshold and non-linear time series regression model in the period of 1959-2020 for the Iranian economy, the results indicate that the threshold and optimal level of inflation in the Iranian economy is between 10 and 12 percent. Finally, it is suggested that the government and the central bank, by adopting appropriate monetary and financial policies, bring the real inflation level closer to its optimal level in order to increase the economic growth and maximize the welfare of the society.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ideal money
  • Inflation Rate
  • Inflation Threshold Rate
  • Optimal Inflation Rate
  • Economic Growth of Iran
سیاهه منابع
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