نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دپارتمان اقتصاد، دانشگاه مفید، قم، ایران.

2 استاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار، دپارتمان اقتصاد، دانشگاه مفید، قم، ایران.

چکیده

پیامدهای بعد از بحران مالی و اقتصادی ۲۰۰۸، برخی واگرایی‌های اساسی را در ادبیات علمی دربارۀ اثرات سیاست مالی نشان داد. از یک‌سو، برخی اقتصاددانان از منطقی‌بودن انتخاب معیارهای ضدادواری سیاست مالی دفاع کرده‌اند؛ از سوی دیگر، برخی نسبت به معنی‌داربودن چنین اقدامات سیاست مالی اظهار تردید نموده‌اند. در این راستا، این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های ۶۲ کشور، در دورة زمانی ۱۹۶۰-۲۰۱۹، با به کارگیری رگرسیون پانل انتقال ملایم (PSTR) و با در نظر گرفتن ضریب فزایندة مالی، در جایگاه متغیر انتقال به بررسی رابطة غیرخطی بین متغیرهای این پژوهش و رشد اقتصادی از یک‌سو و رفتار سیاست مالی در کشورهای نمونه طی دورة رکود و رونق اقتصادی با استفاده از رویکرد LPM از سوی دیگر پرداخته است. براساس نتایج، شوک‌های سیاست مالی در دوران رکود اقتصادی اثر قوی‌تری نسبت به دوران رونق اقتصادی دارند؛ ازاین‌رو اثرات نامتقارن مورد تأیید قرار می‌گیرد. همچنین، سیاست مالی ضدادواری نسبتاً در هموار کردن نوسانات تولید مؤثر است، درحالی‌که سیاست موافق ادواری نوسانات تولید را تشدید می‌کند. برآوردها در این تحقیق بیانگر رفتار موافق ادواری در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه و رفتار ضدادواری در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Mechanism of Fiscal Policy Transfer in the Economy: Evidence of the Asymmetric Behavior of the Fiscal Expenditure Multiplier During Business Cycles.

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amirhossein Najafzadeh 1
  • Asad Allah Farzinvash 2
  • Mohammadreza Yousefi sheikh robaat 3
  • Naser Elahi 3

1 PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, Iran.

2 Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The circumstances following the financial and economic crisis in 2008 revealed some fundamental divergence in the economic literature on the effects of fiscal policy. On one hand, some economists have defended the adapting of countercyclical fiscal policy measures, while, others have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of enacting such fiscal policy measures. This study by using 62 countries’ data over the period 1960-2019, applying panel smooth transition regression, and considering the fiscal multiplier as a transition variable, examines the nonlinear relationship between the explanatory variables and economic growth in one hand, and the behavior of fiscal policy during the recession and expansion among the sample countries, applying LPM approach on the other hand. In addition, the main issue is to examine the size of the fiscal multiplier during the recession. The results show that since fiscal policy shocks have a stronger effect during a recession than an expansion period; hence, asymmetric effects are confirmed. Also, based on the research findings, it is observed that the countercyclical fiscal policy is relatively effective in smoothing production fluctuations, while the procyclical policy worsens production fluctuations. Finally, Estimates in this study indicate a procyclical behavior for developing countries and a countercyclical behavior for developed countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal Policy Transmission Mechanism
  • Business Cycles
  • Fiscal Multiplier
  • Panel Smooth Transition Regression
  • LPM Model
سیاهه منابع
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