نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد نفت و گاز، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران.
3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.
چکیده
ازآنجا‌که منابع از جمله منابع طبیعی نقش مهمی در رشد اقتصادی ایفا می‌کنند، با توسعه سریع اقتصادی و رشد جمعیت، رشد اقتصادی در جهان با محدودیت منابع روبه‌رو است. در کشورهایی که در مسیر سریع توسعه اقتصادی قرار دارند، هماهنگی منابع و اقتصاد به موضوع اصلی دولتها در دستیابی به اهداف توسعه استراتژیک تبدیل شده است و از طرف دیگر بیشتر کشورهای درحال‌توسعه دارای منابع نفتی به درآمد نفت وابسته هستند و رشد اقتصادی آنها تحت تأثیر این درآمد قرار می‌گیرد؛ ازاین‌رو برای کاهش این وابستگی نیاز به جذب سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و دریافت و انتقال فناوری و دانش از کشورهای توسعه‌یافته است که این امر در سایه امنیت و تعامل در کشورها با کیفیت نهادی بهتر امکان‌پذیر خواهد بود. بنابراین هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر وابستگی به نفت و کیفیت نهادی بر رشد اقتصادی است. برای این منظور از روش خودرگرسیون برداری پانلی (PANEL VAR) استفاده شده است و در این راستا از اطلاعات ده کشور منتخب درحال‌توسعه برای دوره زمانی 2019-1995 بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد توابع واکنش حاکی از آن است که شوک اجاره نفتی در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه بر رشد اقتصادی در ابتدای دوره مورد بررسی مثبت و با رسیدن به آخرین دورههای مورد بررسی این روند منفی می‌شود. همچنین شوک سهم نفتی در ابتدای دوره مورد بررسی مثبت و پس از آن اثرگذاری منفی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. همچنین شوک وارده از سوی شاخص کیفیت نهادی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه در دورههای ابتدایی مورد بررسی منفی و سپس مثبت می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Effect of Oil Revenues with Emphasis on Institutional Quality Index on Economic Growth in a Selection of Developing Countries: A Panel Vector Autoregression Approach
نویسندگان [English]
- Azadeh Valihi 1
- Seyed Nematollah Musavi 2
- Abbas Aminifard 3
1 PhD Student in Oil and Gas Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics
چکیده [English]
Because resources, including natural resources, play an important role in economic growth, with speedy economic and population growth, economic growth is facing a scarcity of resources worldwide. Resource-economy co-ordination has become every government’s main focus in reaching strategic development goals in countries that are on the path of rapid economic development. And since most developing countries are dependent on oil revenues and their economic growth is affected by this income, to reduce this dependence, it is necessary to attract foreign investment and receive and transfer technology and knowledge from developed countries. This will be possible due to security and interaction in countries with better institutional quality. The purpose of this study is to inspect the effect of oil dependence and institutional quality on economic growth with the Panel VAR approach. In this regard, 10 developing countries between the years 1995-2019have been selected. The results of the research with reaction functions tells us that the shock of renting crude oil in developing countries affects economic growth positively at first and when reaching its final stages this trend becomes negative. The oil share shock is positive at first and later on has a negative effect on economic growth. In the end the shock from the institutional quality index economic growth in developing countries is negative in the primary stages and turns positive later on.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Institutional Quality
- Economic Growth
- Oil Dependence
- Oil Rent
- Panel Vector Autoregression
سیاهه منابع
الف. کتب و مقالات
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