The effect of export diversification and trade openness on economic growth fluctuations in Iran

Azizi, Zahra; Azizi, Pegah

The effect of export diversification and trade openness on economic growth fluctuations in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Zahra Azizi

Pegah Azizi

Assistant Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Al-Zahra University

Abstract

High economic growth has been one of the main goals of policymakers. In addition to this goal, the stability of economic growth is also important, because its stability can help policymakers in planning for the future. Special attention has been paid to trade as a factor for economic growth and development, while its effects on the fluctuations of economic growth have been less studied. The positive or negative impact of trade openness on the fluctuations of economic growth can be strongly influenced by the country's trade structure and its export diversification. The present paper examines the role of export diversification on economic growth fluctuations and its impact on the relationship between trade openness and economic growth fluctuations during the period of 1984-2015. The results of this study show that the greater degree of trade openness, increases the economic growth fluctuations due to the transfer of external shocks to the economy. But the diversification of exports, both directly and through the trade openness, helps to reduce the economic growth fluctuations.

Keywords

Economic Growth Fluctuations

Export Diversification

Trade Openness

nonlinear model

GARCH Model

الف- فارسی
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