نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
2 دکتری اقتصاد
چکیده
جهانی شدن بازارهای مالی و کمرنگ شدن مرزهای ملی با سرعت قابل توجهی در حال وقوع است. با توجه به روند جهانی شدن مالی، وقوع بحران‌های مالی و نیاز به تحلیل و کنترل بازار مالی، مباحث ثبات مالی و به خصوص شاخص اندازه‌گیری آن در چند سال اخیر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. اما به دلیل گستردگی موضوع و کمبود یافته‌های عمیق در این خصوص، شاخص کلی، فراگیر و معتبر برای آن تاکنون ارائه نشده و مطالعات مختلف، شاخص‌های متفاوت و روش‌های گوناگونی را برای مطالعه ثبات و امنیت بازار مالی مورد استفاده قرار داده‌اند. در این مقاله ضمن بررسی مطالعات و ادبیات تجربی موجود در زمینه مباحث ثبات و امنیت مالی و شاخص‌های متفاوت ارائه شده برای آن، شاخصی با عنوان «شاخص فراگیر ثبات بازار مالی (CFSI)» برای ارزیابی و سنجش ثبات مالی کشورهای در حال توسعه ساخته شده و مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. نتایج بررسی شاخص مزبور در 105 کشور نشان می‌دهد با افزایش سطح توسعه‌یافتگی و درآمدی گروه‌های کشورها، شاخص ثبات مالی آن‌ها نیز افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین ثبات بازارهای مالی در کشورهای نفت‌خیز منطقه خاورمیانه نسبت به بقیه گروه‌های کشورها کمتر بوده و ایران دارای یکی از بی‌ثبات‌ترین بازارهای مالی دنیاست.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Creating Financial Stability Index and Survey in the Developing Countries
نویسندگان [English]
- Asadollah Farzinvash 1
- Ali Ghorbani Shiran 2
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
2 PhD in Economics
چکیده [English]
Financial globalization and accordingly weakening the independent role of national financial markets are taking place. With regard to financial globalization trend, and financial crisis, the need to control the financial markets has made it necessary to construct new indices. But due to difficulty of this subject, a universal index has not been yet built. Thus, different studies of financial stability have used different indices. In this paper, firstly we have surveyed the empirical literature on financial stability and security, and indices that we have used. Then, we proposed a comprehensive index for financial stability (CFSI) to evaluate the stability of financial market in developing countries. The result of this study on 105 country shows that the financial stability increases as the degree of development of a country increases. This study also shows that the oil exporting countries have lower degree of stability relative to the other groups of countries and Iran has one of the most unstable financial markets in the world.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Financial Stability and Security
- Financial Stability Index
- developing countries
الف- فارسی
- دادگر، یداله؛ ناجی میدانی، علی اکبر؛ «شاخص‌های جهانی شدن اقتصاد و موقعیت ایران»، فصلنامه پژوهشنامه بازرگانی، 1382، شماره 29.
- جانسون، ریچارد آ؛ دین دبیلو، ویچرن؛ تحلیل آماری چند متغیری، ترجمه حسینعلی نیرومند، انتشارات دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، 1379.
ب- لاتین
-
Albulescu Claudiu Tiberi; 2009, ''Forecasting Romanian Financial System Stability Using a Stochastic Simulation Model'', International Network for Economic Research, Working Paper 4.
-
Eichengreen Barry and Andrew Rose; 1998, "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External, Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises", NBER Working Paper no. 6370 (January 1998).
-
Eichengreen Barry and Carlos Arteta; 2000, "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence", Center for International and Development Economics Research UC Berkeley, August.
-
Beck T; Demirgüç-Kunt A. and Levine R; 2006, "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results", Journal of Banking and Finance, 30(5), P.1581-1603.
-
Borio C and M Drehmann; 2009, "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: “fuzzy” measurement and its consequences", Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper, 284.
-
Borio, C and I Shim; 2007, "What can macro-prudential policy do to support monetary policy?", Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper, 242.
-
Burnside, Craig; Martin Eichenbaum; and Sergio Rebelo; 2001, "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis", Journal of Political Economy, 109 (December): 1155–97.
-
Calin D; 2004, "The Impact of the European Monetary Unification upon Romania", PhD thesis, West University of Timişoara.
-
Caprio, Gerard, Jr and Daniela Klingebiel; 1996, "Bank insolvency: Bad luck, bad policy, or bad banking?" , In Annual World Bank conference on development economics 1996, 1–26. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
-
Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade; 2007, "The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World", Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 69-90, Fall.
-
Čihák, M; 2007, "Systemic loss: A Measure of Financial Stability", in Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2.
-
Cukierman, A; 1992, Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
-
Das Udaibir; M. Quintyn and K. Chenard; 2004, "Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial System Stability? An Empirical Analysis", IMF Working Paper 04/89, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
-
Domaç Ilker and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; 2003, "Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?", Journal of International Economics, 2003, Volume 61, Issue 1, October, Pages 41-72.
-
Frankel, Jeffrey and Andrew K. Rose; 1996, "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment", Journal of International Economics, 41 (November): 351–66.
-
Galbis V; 1993, "High Real Interest Rates under Financial Liberalization: Is There a Problem?", IMF Working Paper, No. 7.
-
García-Herrero A and P. del Rio; 2003, "Financial Stability and the Design of Monetary Policy", Documento de Trabajo, No. 0315, Banco de España.
-
Gersl A and Hermanek, J; 2006, "Financial Stability Indicators: advantages and disadvantages of their use in the Assessment of the Financial System Stability", in Financial stability Report, Czech National Bank.
-
Goldstein Morris & Reinhart; Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela; 2000, "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction" , MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
-
Hanschel E and P. Monnin; 2005, "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: Evidence from Switzerland", in «Investigating the Relationship between the Financial and Real Economy», BIS Papers, No. 22, pp. 431-449.
-
Illing M and Y Liu; 2003, "An index of financial stress for Canada", Bank of Canada, Working Paper, 14.
-
Issing Otmar; 2003, "Monetary and financial stability - is there a trade-off?", Conference on «Monetary Stability, Financial Stability and the Business Cycle», Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28-29.
-
Kaminsky, Graciela and Carmen M. Reinhart; 1999, "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems", American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 3 (June), pp. 473–500.
-
klomp Jeroen and jakob de haan; 2009, "central bank independence and Financial instability", Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 5, Issue 4, December 2009, Pages 321-338.
-
Klomp, J.G and J. de Haan; 2007, "Inflation and Central Bank Independence: A Meta Regression Analysis", University of Groningen, Mimeo.
-
McKinnon R; 1991, the Order of Economic Liberalization, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London.
-
Mishkin Frederic S; 1996, "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy", NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
-
Nelson W.R. and Perli R; 2005, "Selected Indicators of Financial Stability", FourthJoint Central Bank Research Conference, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 08 November.
-
Oosterlo S. and J. De Haan; 2004, Central Banks and Financial Stability: a Survey, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol.1, and p. 257-273.
-
Quintyn, Marc and M. Taylor; 2003, "Regulatory and Supervisory Independence and Financial Stability", CESifo, Economic Studies, Vol 49, No. 2.
-
Rouabah A; 2008, Mesure de la vulnérabilité du secteur bancaire luxembourgeois, 25th GDRE-CNRS Symposium on Money, Banking and Finance, University of Luxembourg.
-
Schwartz Anna; 1995, "Systemic Risk and the Macro economy" in G. Kaufman, ed., Banking, Financial Markets, and Systemic Risk, Vol7, Research in Financial Services, Private and Public Policy. Greenwich, Connecticut, Jai Press, 19-30.
-
van den End Jan Willem; 2006, "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability", DNB Working Paper, 2006, No. 97/March.
-
Zeng Xiaoqing; Jingji quanqiuhua yu and jinrong lifa yanjiu; 2005, "Economic Globalization and Research on Lawmaking of Financial Regulation", Beijing: Beijing daxue chubanshe.
-
Zhang Ligin and Li Jianjun; 2005, "Financial Liberalization and Financial stability", Beijing: Kemin chubanshe.
)
ارسال نظر در مورد این مقاله