سرمایه نامشهود و صرف ارزش در بازار سهام ایران: شواهدی از یک الگوی ادوار تجاری حقیقی

باغبان زاده, فرشته; زارع, هاشم; امینی فرد, عباس; حقیقت, علی

doi:10.22096/esp.2021.121519.1308

سرمایه نامشهود و صرف ارزش در بازار سهام ایران: شواهدی از یک الگوی ادوار تجاری حقیقی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

فرشته باغبان زاده ¹

هاشم زارع ²

عباس امینی فرد ³

علی حقیقت ³

¹ گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحدشیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.

² گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصادومدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، شیراز، ایران.

³ گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.

10.22096/esp.2021.121519.1308

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش اضافه نمودن سرمایه نامشهود به الگوی ادوار تجاری حقیقی تحت یک مدل تعادل عمومی و بررسی پدیده «صرف ارزش» در این چارچوب است. نظر به محدودیتهایی که در مطالعات مشابه برای بازار سهام ایران وجود داشته است، ضروری به نظر میرسد تا از زاویهای جدید با وارد نمودن سرمایه نامشهود و در چارچوب الگوی تعادل عمومی، بازار سهام ایران و معمای «صرف ارزش» در حالتهای مختلف مقایسه و تحلیل گردد. در این راستا با در نظر گرفتن سناریوهای مختلف به واکاوی الگوهای مختلف و تحلیل مسیرهای پویای تعادلی در قالب نظریه ادوار تجاری حقیقی پرداخته شده است. واکاوی دادهها با استفاده از برنامه داینر در فضای نرمافزار متلب بر اساس روش مونتکارلو از زنجیره مارکوف در قالب الگوریتم متروپولیس هستینگز صورت گرفته است. به‌طورکلی نتایج حاکی از این حقیقت است که الگویی که سرمایه نامشهود در آن لحاظ شده است، بهتر از سایر الگوها می‌تواند تحولات بازار سهام و به‌خصوص میزان تفاوت میان سهام رشدی و ارزشی را که بیان‌کننده صرف ارزش است را توضیح دهد. همچنین نتایج نشان میدهد به دلیل پاسخ متفاوت دو سرمایه مشهود و نامشهود به تکانههای بهرهوری در اقتصاد، صرف ریسک بیشتری برای سرمایه فیزیکی نسبت به سرمایه نامشهود قابل مشاهده میباشد. بهعلاوه در تمام الگوهایی که سرمایه نامشهود در کنار سرمایه مشهود در نظر گرفته شده است، بازدهی بالاتری برای سرمایه مشهود نشان داده شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ادوار تجاری حقیقی

تعادل عمومی

سرمایه نامشهود

صرف ارزش

عنوان مقاله English

Intangible Capital and Value Premium in Iranian Stock Market: Evidence From Real Business Cycle Pattern

نویسندگان English

Fereshte Baghbanzade ¹

Hashem Zare ²

Abbas Aminifard ³

Ali Haghighat ³

¹ Department of economics, Faculty of economics and management, Shiraz branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.

² Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.

³ Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.

چکیده English

The purpose of this study is to add the intangible capital to real business cycle models in general equilibrium model. In this framework, the dynamics of the economy and value premium puzzle are also examined. Due to the limitations existing in similar studies for the stock market in Iran, it is essential to add the intangible capital to general equilibrium model for Iranian stock market. Then, value premium puzzle in different situations were compared and analyzed. In this regard, four different regressions are carried out. In order to analyze the data, the Dynare program in the MATLAB software environment is used based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo within the framework of the metropolis-Hastings Algorithm. The results indicate that the addition of intangible capital to the real business cycle model can cause the reduction of the volatility in the growth of physical capital as well as the increase of its efficiency. In addition, the results demonstrate that a model employing intangible capital is susceptible to a higher risk premium for the physical capital in comparison to intangible capital. Therefore, it is concluded that a model with intangible capital is better than the other models explaining the value premium of the stock market in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Real Business Cycle

General Equilibrium

Intangible Capital

Value Premium

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