The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies

The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Returns of Exporting Companies on the Tehran Stock Market Returns: Distinguishing between Temporary and Permanent Shocks

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 PhD student in Economics, Faculty of Economy, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economy, Kerman Branch,Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.
3 Professor, Faculty of Economy, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of oil price shocks on the stock returns of export-oriented companies in Iran over the period from January 2014 to April 2020, employing a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. To disentangle temporary from permanent oil price shocks, the Blanchard-Quah decomposition technique is applied. The results reveal that the response of stock returns to temporary oil price shocks varies across industries. In the pharmaceutical, machinery and equipment, food industries, and tile and ceramic sectors, stock returns respond positively from the first to the third period; however, from the fourth period onward, the effect diminishes and is fully absorbed in the long run. Conversely, in the automotive and parts, chemical industries, cement, lime and plaster, and basic metal industries, stock returns exhibit a negative response during the first two periods, turning positive and increasing from the third period before fully adjusting to zero in the long run. Regarding permanent oil price shocks, the findings indicate an immediate negative response in stock returns across export companies during the first period, followed by a gradual increase from the second period, with positive effects persisting through the fourth period. From the fifth to the tenth period, however, the positive response is completely adjusted, suggesting that permanent oil price shocks exert only transitory effects on the stock returns of exporting firms.
Keywords
Subjects

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Available Online from 20 April 2026