نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of uncertainty indexes on household consumption behavior in the economy of Iran during 1338 -1384.
To do so, the uncertainty indexes such as, unemployment rate, expected income growth, the absolute value of income deviation from it’s mean of the last 5 years, and the ratio of the previous year liquid and nonliquid asset to current disposable income have been used. In addition, we have used the time- series data for the period 1338 - 1384 and econometric models in which consumption as a depended variable and uncertainty indexes as well as other variables based on consumption theories as independed variables. Also, in order to overcome multicollinearity problem between independed variables we have tried to use an appropriate index to measure uncertainty.
The results and findings of the present paper after using cointegration of variables in long run show as expected that there is a negative relationship between uncertainty and household consumption in Iran for the period under consideration. Based on above conclusion, it is suggested that government to improve the performance of fiscal policies and therefore, the macroeconomic variables in order to alleviate the impacts of uncertainty.
کلیدواژهها English
