نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of exchange rate increase on Iran's manufacturing industries labor demand for the period of 2001-2016, by using the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM). The exchange rate influences the demand for labor through two channels: first, while an increase in exchange rate makes home products cheaper relative to foreign products, increases the manufacturing product demand and has a positive effect on labor demand. Second, an increase in exchange rates makes imported inputs more expensive and, consequently, increases production costs that decrease demand for labor. The net effect of employment changes that caused by the exchange rate depends on the sum of these two channels. The results of this study show that the net effect of increasing exchange rate on employment of manufacturing industries is negative and significant, which indicates the high dependence of the manufacturing process in manufacturing industries on foreign inputs. c
کلیدواژهها English
ب) انگلیسی
نرخ ارز اسمی و نرخ ارز حقیقی طی بازه زمانی 1358-1394
منبع: بانک مرکزی، بانک جهانی، سازمان همکاری و توسعه اقتصادی (OECD) و محاسبات تحقیق
جدول ۱
|
سال |
نرخ بازار غیر رسمی (ریال) |
CPI(OECD) |
CPI(IRAN) |
نرخ ارز حقیقی(ریال) |
|
1358 |
141 |
|||
|
1359 |
200 |
20/9 |
0/546367 |
7650/539649 |
|
1360 |
270 |
23/4 |
0/678607 |
9310/248264 |
|
1361 |
350 |
25/9 |
0/805437 |
11254/76216 |
|
1362 |
450 |
28/6 |
0/964432 |
13344/64793 |
|
1363 |
580 |
31/1 |
1/085373 |
16619/16495 |
|
1364 |
614 |
33/4 |
1/133014 |
18100/03847 |
|
1365 |
742 |
35/6 |
1/341817 |
19686/1364 |
|
1366 |
991 |
38/8 |
1/725194 |
22287/81516 |
|
1367 |
966 |
42/5 |
2/219818 |
18494/76127 |
|
1368 |
1207/1 |
45/2 |
2/715939 |
20089/15251 |
|
1369 |
1412/3 |
48/3 |
2/923102 |
23336/19594 |
|
1370 |
1420/2 |
51/5 |
3/423788 |
21362/39183 |
|
1371 |
1498 |
54/2 |
4/30739 |
18849/3743 |
|
1372 |
1806 |
56/7 |
5/22067 |
19614/38054 |
|
1373 |
2635 |
59/4 |
6/862415 |
22808/15123 |
|
1374 |
4036 |
63 |
10/27001 |
24758/28935 |
|
1375 |
4446 |
66/6 |
13/24188 |
22361/13764 |
|
1376 |
4782 |
69/8 |
15/53925 |
21480/03443 |
|
1377 |
6468 |
72/7 |
18/31551 |
25673/51668 |
|
1378 |
8634 |
75/3 |
21/99156 |
29563/16238 |
|
1379 |
8131 |
78/3 |
25/17523 |
25289/03719 |
|
1380 |
7925 |
81/1 |
28/01355 |
22943/09654 |
|
1381 |
7991 |
83/3 |
32/02955 |
20782/38072 |
|
1382 |
8323 |
85/3 |
37/30418 |
19031/43032 |
|
1383 |
8747 |
87/3 |
42/81084 |
17836/91015 |
|
1384 |
9042 |
89/6 |
48/56167 |
16683/18235 |
|
1385 |
9226 |
92 |
54/35972 |
15614/35672 |
|
1386 |
9357 |
94/3 |
63/71668 |
13848/25934 |
|
1387 |
9667 |
97/8 |
79/99619 |
11818/47007 |
|
1388 |
9979 |
98/2 |
90/79589 |
10792/75537 |
|
1389 |
10601 |
100 |
100 |
10601 |
|
1390 |
13568 |
102/8 |
120/6283 |
11562/70982 |
|
1391 |
26059 |
105/1 |
153/6291 |
17827/35831 |
|
1392 |
31839 |
106/8 |
213/9536 |
15893/18635 |
|
1393 |
32801 |
108/6 |
250/8293 |
14201/64318 |
|
1394 |
34501 |
109/3 |
285/2075 |
13221/8101 |
نمودار 1