نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران،مازندران،ایران
2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مفید، قم، ایران
4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه محدث نوری، مازندران، ایران
چکیده
این مقاله در صدد بهینه سازی سطح شفافیت بانک مرکزی است به گونه ای که تلاطم بازارهای مالی در کشورهای منتخب عضو سازمان همکاری های اسلامی (بر اساس حداکثر در دسترس بودن داده ها) طی سال های 2002-2014 حداقل شود. با بکارگیری روش GMM آرلانو-باند و استفاده از شاخص دینسر و ایچنگرین، به عنوان متغیر نماینده شفافیت، حد بهینه شفافیت بانک مرکزی استخراج می شود. نتایج نشان می دهد که افزایش در سطح شفافیت بانک مرکزی تا نقطه خاصی موجب کاهش تلاطم بازارهای مالی می شود و بعد از این نقطه، اطلاعات اضافی از بانک های مرکزی موجب تشدید تلاطم بازارهای مالی می گردد. همچنین تأثیر سایر متغیرها (عمق مالی، پیشینه تورم و نرخ بیکاری) بر تلاطم بازارهای مالی مثبت است. ازاین‌رو، حرکت با احتیاط به‌سوی شفافیت سیاست پولی پیشنهاد می شود زیرا تلاطم بازارهای مالی به طور قابل ملاحظه ای می تواند کاهش یابد که دلالت بر مزایای مهم ثبات مالی دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Derivation of Optimal Central Bank Transparency for Minimizing the Financial Market Volatility: A Case Study of the Selected States of Organization of Islamic Cooperation
نویسندگان [English]
- MohammadAli Ehsani 1
- Asadollah Farzinvash 2
- Nasser Elahi 3
- Reza Izadi 4
1 Associate Professor in Economics, Mazandaran University, Mazandaran, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Mofid University, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Mohaddes Nouri University, Iran
چکیده [English]
This paper aims to optimize the central bank transparency level which corresponds to the minimum of financial markets volatility in selected states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (based on the maximum data availability) during the period 2004-2014. Applying the Arellano-Bond GMM estimation and using the Dincer and Eichengreen index as a proxy of transparency. includes five aspects covering political, economic, procedural, policy, and operational transparency. This index ranges in numerical value from 0 to 15. The result indicates that an increase in the level of central bank transparency will decrease financial markets volatility up to a certain point, after which additional information from central banks begins to exacerbate it. Also, the effect of other variables (financial depth, past inflation and unemployment rate) on financial markets volatility was found positive. Therefore, moving with caution towards monetary policy transparency is recommended as financial markets volatility can be reduced considerably, implying significant benefits for financial stability.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Central Bank Transparency
- Financial Markets Volatility
- Optimal transparency level
- Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
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