نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، ایران
2 دانشیار و عضو هیأت علمی دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان
3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان
چکیده
در پژوهش حاضر، اثر متقابل نوسان نرخ ارز واقعی و عایدی خارجی خانوار با کاربرد انحراف معیار میانگین متحرک (MASD) نرخ ارز واقعی ماهانه و با روش داده های پانل در قالب سیستم معادلات همزمان حداقل مربعات سه مرحله‌ای(3SLS) برای کشورهای اسلامی درحال توسعه(D8) طی سال‌های 2016-2005 مورد بررسی و تحلیل تجربی قرار می‌گیرد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که رابطه دو طرفه‌ای بین نوسان نرخ ارز و عایدی خارجی خانوار برقرار است که در این میان، نوسان نرخ ارز تأثیر بزرگتر و قابل توجهی بر عایدی خارجی خانوار دارد؛ درحالیکه اثر معکوس آنها اندک است. به عبارتی، عایدی خارجی خانوار تأثیر قابل توجهی بر نوسان نرخ ارز ندارد که این امر موجب ثبات اقتصادی می‌شود. علاوه بر این، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، مخارج دولت، رابطه مبادله و باز بودن تجاری باعث ایجاد نوسان در نرخ ارز واقعی و در سوی دیگر، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، توسعه مالی، هزینه سرانه خانوار، وابستگی سنی و نرخ بهره تفاضلی از جمله عوامل تأثیرگذار بر میزان عایدی خارجی در کشورهای مورد بررسی پژوهش می‌باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Mutual Relationship between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Remittances in Islamic Developing Countries (D8): A Simultaneous Equations Approach
نویسندگان [English]
- Rahman Saadat 1
- Majid Maddah 2
- Payam Naderi 3
1 Assistant Prof., Faculty of Economics, Semnan University Semnan, Iran
2 Associate Prof. of Semnan University, Faculty of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
3 Ph.D. student in International Economics, Semnan University, Semnan Iran
چکیده [English]
In this study, the mutual relationship between real exchange rate volatility and remittances has been investigated and empirically analyzed by the use of Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD) of monthly real exchange rate and panel data method within the framework of three stage least square (3SLS) of simultaneous equations system in the Islamic developing countries (D8) over the period 2005-2016. The results demonstrate that there is a mutual relationship between the real exchange rate volatility and remittances. In the meanwhile, the exchange rate volatility has a greater and significant effect on remittances; while their reverse effect is small. In other words, the remittances inflows don’t have a significant effect on the real exchange rate volatility, which leads to economic stability. In addition, foreign direct investment, government expenditures, terms of trade and trade openness cause volatilities in real exchange rates, and on the other side, GDP per capita, financial development, household expenditure per capita, age dependency and differential interest rate are the influential factors of remittances inflow in the studied countries.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Remittances
- Real Exchange rate
- Moving Average Standard Deviation
- Simultaneous Equations System
- 3SLS
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