نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of currency devaluation on the trade balance of Iran by using J and S curve approaches over the period of 1976-2007.
For this purpose, we used the Johansen’s co-integration approach and impulse response function for the long run and short run analysis, respectively.
The empirical results reveal that currency devaluation has a negative effect on the Iranian trade balance in long run as well as short run and reject the J and S curves hypothesis for Iran. Overall the empirical findings of the J and S suggest that the trade balance of Iran does not improve as a result of currency devaluation.
کلیدواژهها English
Ahmed, J; Yang, J; "Estimation of the J-Curve in China", East-West Center Working Papers, 2004, No. 67.
Bahmani Oskooee, M; "Devaluation and the J-curve: some evidence from LDCs", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1985, No. 67.
_______________; "Devaluation and the J-curve: some evidence from LDCs", The Review of Economics and Statistics,1985, No. 67.
_______________; "Nominal and real effective exchange rates of Middle Eastern countries and their trade performance", Applied Economics, 2001, No. 33.
Bahmani oskooee, M; Abera, G; Ratha, A; "S-curve Dynamics of Trade in Africa", African Development Review, 2008, No. 2.
Bahmani Oskooee, M; Alse, J; "Short-run versus longrun effects of devaluation:error correction modeling and cointegration", EasternEconomic Journal, 1994,No. 4.
Bahmani oskooee, M; Ratha, A; "The J Curve: a Literature Review", Applied Economics, 2004, No. 36.
____________________ ; "Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners", Japan and the World Economy, 2007, No. 19.
____________________ ; "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China", China Economic Review, 2010, No. 21.
Brissimis, S. N.; Leventakis, J. A; "The effectiveness of devaluation: a general equilibrium assessment with reference to Greece", Journal of Policy Modelling, 1989, No. 2.
Enders, W; "Applied Econometric Time Series", University of Alabama, 2004.
Gomes, F.A.R; Paz, S; "Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990-1998 Brazilian case", Applied Economics Letters, 2005,No. 12.
Hacker, R. S; Hatemi-J, A; "Is the J-curve effect observable for small North European economies?", Open Economies Review, 2003, No. 14.
Hacker, S; Kim, H; "How Does a Depreciation in the Exchange Rate Affect Trade over Time", Jankoping International Business School, 2010, No. 2.
International Financial Statistics, CD-ROM, (IFS), www.imf.org.
Johansen, S; Juselius, K; "Maximum Likelihood Estimated and Inference of Co- integration with Application to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1990,No. 52.
Kalyoncu Huseyin, et al; "Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries", Zb. rad. Ekon. fak. Rij, 2009, No. 27.
Miles, M. A; "The effects of devaluation on the trade balance and the balance of payments: some new results", Journal of Political Economy, 1979,No. 3.
Narayan, P.K; "New Zealand’s trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality", Applied Economics Letters, 2004,No. 11.
Rose, A. K; Yellen, J. L; "Is There a J-curve?",Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, No. 24.
____________________ ; "Is There a J-curve?", Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, No. 24.
Sundararajan, S; Bhole, L. M; "Testing the effects of devaluation on the balance of payments in India", Indian Journal of Quantitative Economics, 1988, No. 2.
World Development Indicators (2010),www.worldbank.org
Yiheyis, Z; "The Effects of Devaluation on Aggregate Output: Empirical Evidence from Africa", International Review of Applied Economics, 2006, No. 1.
Zhang, Z.Y; Sato, K; "How Effective Is the Renminbi Devaluation O China’s Trade Balance", 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia, 2009, No. 5.
