تأثیر مهاجرین افغانستان بر سطح اشتغال و دستمزد در بخش ساختمان اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

2 کارشناس ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی

10.22096/esp.2013.26118

چکیده

در طول سال‌های گذشته، ایران به واسطة همسایگی با کشورهای عراق و افغانستان که از لحاظ سیاسی و اقتصادی ثبات چندانی ندارند، شاهد سیل عظیمی از مهاجرین خارجی بود. در این میان، وضعیت خاص کشور افغانستان در طول سال‌های گذشته، وجود مرز مشترک طولانی و اشتراکات زبانی و مذهبی ما بین دو کشور شرایطی را فراهم کرده که اکثریت اتباع خارجی ایران را افاغنه تشکیل می‌دهند. مهاجرین افغانی عمدتاً غیرماهر و غیرقانونی بوده و با دریافت دستمزدهای پایین و پذیرش شرایط سخت کاری اکثراً در بخش ساختمان و فعالیت‌های مرتبط با بخش ساختمان مشغول به کارند. همین امر موجب شده تا بخش ساختمان بیشترین تأثیر را از حیث بازار کار در پی حضور مهاجرین افغانی پذیرا باشد. این مقاله با استفاده از داده‏های سری‌زمانی و برآورد معادلات رگرسیونی به روش حداقل مربعات معمولی(OLS)  در اقتصادسنجی، به مطالعه تأثیر حضور افاغنه بر روی سطح اشتغال و دستمزد در بخش ساختمان می‌پردازد. نتایج مطالعه نشان می‌دهند که در طول دوره مورد بررسی (1355-1385)، در بخش ساختمان، نیروی کار افغانی جانشین نیروی کار ایرانی شده و اشتغال ایرانیان در این بخش کاهش یافته است. کاهش متوسط دستمزد واقعی بخش ساختمان در پی حضور گسترده افاغنه در این بخش، از دیگر نتایج مهم می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Economic Effects of Afghan Immigrants on Employment and Wage Level in Construction Sector of Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Eisazadeh 1
  • Jahanbakhsh Mehranfar 2
چکیده [English]

During last few decades, Iran has experienced a massive flow of immigrants from two countries of Afghanistan and Iraq as a result these countries social, political and economic instability. For the time being, the majority of immigrants in Iran are Afghans. Difference in level of economic development between Iran and Afghanistan is the main contributing factor to this phenomenon, while the cultural and religious commonalities also should not be ignored. The majority of Afghan immigrants are typically unskilled and illegal workers. They expect lower wages than their Iranian counterparts and are ready to work in difficult conditions. Keeping in mind that a high percentage of Afghan immigrants are working in the construction sector, it is expected that most effects take place in this sector of the economy. In this paper we study the impacts of Afghan immigrants on the employment and average real wages of construction sector in Iran, through time series data analysis and estimating regression equations using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. Results indicate that during the period under study (1976-2006), Iranian workers have been replaced by Afghan workers, and their employment rate has declined in the construction sector. Declining average wage rate in construction sector due to existing Afghan workers in Iranian labor market is another important result of this study.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Afghan Immigrants
  • labor market
  • Construction Sector
  • employment
  • Wage Rate

الف- فارسی

  1. امینی، علیرضا و همکاران؛ «بازنگری برآورد سری زمانی جمعیت شاغل به تفکیک بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران (1385-1355)»، مجله برنامه و بودجه، 1387، شماره 102.
  2. بانک مرکزی ایران، گزارش شاخص‌های اقتصادی سال‌های 1355 تا 1385.
  3. کریمی، زهرا؛ «تأثیر مهاجرین افغانی بر سطح دستمزد و اشتغال در ایران، تهران، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران»، 1383، شماره 18.
  4. رشیدزاده، سردار؛ «اثرات اقتصادی مهاجرین خارجی در بازار کار»، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه بو علی سینا همدان به راهنمایی دکتر سعید عیسی‌زاده، 1383.
  5. عیسی‌زاده، سعید؛ «اثرات اقتصادی مهاجرین افغانی در بازار کار ایران»، طرح تحقیقاتی، مؤسسه کار و تأمین اجتماعی، 1384.
  6. محمودیان، حسین؛ «مهاجرت افغان‌ها به ایران»، تهران، نامة انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران، 1386، شمارة 4.
  7. مرکز آمار ایران، سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن 1385، سالنامه آماری سال‌های مختلف.
  8. نوفرستی، محمد؛ ریشه واحد و هم‌جمعی در اقتصادسنجی، تهران، مؤسسه خدماتی فرهنگی رسا، 1387.

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