Mofid UniversityThe Journal of Economic Studies and Policies2423-46485220181023Design of quasi futures contractDesign of quasi futures contract32837017FAOmidKhodavirdiPhD student in economics Mofid UniversityMohsenMehraraProfessor in economics, University of Tehran, Iran.MajidRezaeeAssistant Professor, Department of Economics, Mofid University0000-0003-3618-2195Seid Zia AddinKia AloseiniAssistant Professor, Department of Economics, Mofid UniversityJournal Article20181003The present study aims to provide a model for covering price risks in Iranian importers of agricultural commodities, which may help prevent adverse effects of price fluctuations. The proposed model uses futures-like contracts for agricultural commodity imports. In order to assess the efficiency of the model, daily spot and futures prices of soybeans and corn were collected from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange during the period 05/01/2010 to 06/08/2018. The method of the optimal risk coverage ratio bears crucial importance in these two situations. In the first case, using the Markov switching method, the optimal risk coverage ratio for corn was shown to be 0.966572 and 0.0051858 in the zero and one regimes, respectively. The ratio for soybeans was computed to be 0.977403 and 0.019816 in the zero and one regimes, respectively. Thus, real-world risk coverage should be obtained through using futures-like contracts. optimal risk coverage ratio for soybeans and corn would be 0.849 and 0.9065, respectively, while the efficiency of risk coverage for them would be 82% and 78%, respectively.The present study aims to provide a model for covering price risks in Iranian importers of agricultural commodities, which may help prevent adverse effects of price fluctuations. The proposed model uses futures-like contracts for agricultural commodity imports. In order to assess the efficiency of the model, daily spot and futures prices of soybeans and corn were collected from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange during the period 05/01/2010 to 06/08/2018. The method of the optimal risk coverage ratio bears crucial importance in these two situations. In the first case, using the Markov switching method, the optimal risk coverage ratio for corn was shown to be 0.966572 and 0.0051858 in the zero and one regimes, respectively. The ratio for soybeans was computed to be 0.977403 and 0.019816 in the zero and one regimes, respectively. Thus, real-world risk coverage should be obtained through using futures-like contracts. optimal risk coverage ratio for soybeans and corn would be 0.849 and 0.9065, respectively, while the efficiency of risk coverage for them would be 82% and 78%, respectively.https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_37017_b2b9e8eb2b9bc46c4f57785472b96f4d.pdfMofid UniversityThe Journal of Economic Studies and Policies2423-46485220181023Economic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countriesEconomic, political and institutional shocks and their effect on the commercial cycles of the chosen oil exporting countries295237018FAAnitaAzimi HosseiniDoctoral Student in Monetary Economics
Islamic Azad University of Qazvin,Iran.BeitollahAkbari MoqadamIslamic Azad University of Qazvin, Iran.MortezaAsadiKharazmi Islamic Azad University, IranJournal Article20180721In the current research the business cycles as well as significant variables that are involved in the creation of it due to the presence of institutional,political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela from1996to2016using Bayesian Vector autoregression.The results acquired through variance analysis show that in short term GDP has had the utmost share in the justification of the its instability.In long term due to the increase in the role of other variables,the role of GDP has declined insofar as in the end of the period except to such countries as Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela the oil shock is among the reasons of business cycles in Canada and the same role is undertaken by financial shock in Norway.Moreover,findings show that political and institutional factors have brought about fundamental changes in the role of shocks insofar as they have reduced the effect of shocks involved in instability in long term.Political and institutional factors are respectively playing the most effective roles in Iran and NorwayIn the current research the business cycles as well as significant variables that are involved in the creation of it due to the presence of institutional,political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela from1996to2016using Bayesian Vector autoregression.The results acquired through variance analysis show that in short term GDP has had the utmost share in the justification of the its instability.In long term due to the increase in the role of other variables,the role of GDP has declined insofar as in the end of the period except to such countries as Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela the oil shock is among the reasons of business cycles in Canada and the same role is undertaken by financial shock in Norway.Moreover,findings show that political and institutional factors have brought about fundamental changes in the role of shocks insofar as they have reduced the effect of shocks involved in instability in long term.Political and institutional factors are respectively playing the most effective roles in Iran and Norwayhttps://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_37018_07044df9f0dc1d12e08825ac86cc9f6d.pdfMofid UniversityThe Journal of Economic Studies and Policies2423-46485220181023Health tourism efficiency in Iran and selected countries and strategies for improving the situation in IranHealth tourism efficiency in Iran and selected countries and strategies for improving the situation in Iran537637019FAYadollahDadgarProfessor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.SaraEmamgholipourAssociate Professor, Department of Health Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.Seyedeh MaedehHosseiniMaster of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political ScienceJournal Article20190116In health tourism, it is necessary to consider the level of performance, so that managers of this section will use methods to use resources to achieve high performance. This study examines the effectiveness of health tourism in the MENA countries and the OECD,as well as some of the provinces of Iran, and finally, solutions will be presented to improve the situation in Iran. The method of doing this research is data envelopment analysis and variable returns to the output-oriented scale as well as software used in this research, DEA Solver. The results show that among the MENA countries, the countries of Jordan, the UAE and Turkey have the best performance. Iran is also ranked 6th in the 7 countries surveyed. From OECD countries, Austria and Poland are good. In the provinces, Tehran, Khuzestan and Qom are also most effective. Based on this study, investing in infrastructure and marketing is an effective strategy for health tourism in countries such as Iran.In health tourism, it is necessary to consider the level of performance, so that managers of this section will use methods to use resources to achieve high performance. This study examines the effectiveness of health tourism in the MENA countries and the OECD,as well as some of the provinces of Iran, and finally, solutions will be presented to improve the situation in Iran. The method of doing this research is data envelopment analysis and variable returns to the output-oriented scale as well as software used in this research, DEA Solver. The results show that among the MENA countries, the countries of Jordan, the UAE and Turkey have the best performance. Iran is also ranked 6th in the 7 countries surveyed. From OECD countries, Austria and Poland are good. In the provinces, Tehran, Khuzestan and Qom are also most effective. Based on this study, investing in infrastructure and marketing is an effective strategy for health tourism in countries such as Iran.https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_37019_6afe0837f8aac5e0a2a7fa5161b07b56.pdfMofid UniversityThe Journal of Economic Studies and Policies2423-46485220181023Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Iran; A Time-Scale AnalysisIncome Inequality and Economic Growth in Iran; A Time-Scale Analysis7710437020FADarioushHassanvandAssistant Professor in Department of Economics, University of LorestanRaminKhochianiassistant professor, economics, ayatollah borujerdi universityJournal Article20181124The study of the relationship between growth and distribution of income in the economic literature has a special place both theoretically and experimentally. Therefore, the causality between two variables in the short and long term is investigated by policy makers and economic analysts. The continuous wavelet and co-movement analysis have the ability to simultaneously investigate the interaction of the two variables at different times and scales. Hence, it is an appropriate tool for analyzing the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. In this paper, we evaluate this relationship in Iran's economy by Gini coefficient and ratio of deciles and using wavelet coherency analysis during the period 1969-2016.The results show that there is a positive correlation between income inequality and economic growth in the short and medium term (~5 years).briefly, in the period from 1979 to 1985, in the short and medium term, economic growth and inequality have moved in one direction. Also, in the long run and throughout the time period, two variables are in-phase.The study of the relationship between growth and distribution of income in the economic literature has a special place both theoretically and experimentally. Therefore, the causality between two variables in the short and long term is investigated by policy makers and economic analysts. The continuous wavelet and co-movement analysis have the ability to simultaneously investigate the interaction of the two variables at different times and scales. Hence, it is an appropriate tool for analyzing the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. In this paper, we evaluate this relationship in Iran's economy by Gini coefficient and ratio of deciles and using wavelet coherency analysis during the period 1969-2016.The results show that there is a positive correlation between income inequality and economic growth in the short and medium term (~5 years).briefly, in the period from 1979 to 1985, in the short and medium term, economic growth and inequality have moved in one direction. Also, in the long run and throughout the time period, two variables are in-phase.https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_37020_758206fbaf1b624515dc37767ef6edc8.pdfMofid UniversityThe Journal of Economic Studies and Policies2423-46485220181023The Threshold Effect of Government Debt on Private Sector Consumption in IranThe Threshold Effect of Government Debt on Private Sector Consumption in Iran10512437021FANaziMohammadzadeh AslAssistant professor, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Faculty of accounting and economyJournal Article20181203Governmental debts mean income reduction and increase of government expenditures with impression on household disposable income that influence on their consumption. This impact, in some cases has expansion positive effects and in some other cases, reduces consumption, investment and economic growth and other values. The main aim of this paper is to study the linear and non-linear relations between consumption of private sector and government debts in Iran. For this purpose, the period between 1358-1395 years was considered and after confirmation of non-linear relation, government debt threshold was achieved by Smooth Transition Regression method . Results show that in the considered time period, the average government debt to GDP was around 60%, but threshold was estimated 46%. In other words, passing threshold causes by increasing government debts and probability of government inability to debts repayment, consumption of private sector will be reduced indirectly. So Policy makers in Iran cannot leverage government debt as a positive expansion in Iran's economy.Governmental debts mean income reduction and increase of government expenditures with impression on household disposable income that influence on their consumption. This impact, in some cases has expansion positive effects and in some other cases, reduces consumption, investment and economic growth and other values. The main aim of this paper is to study the linear and non-linear relations between consumption of private sector and government debts in Iran. For this purpose, the period between 1358-1395 years was considered and after confirmation of non-linear relation, government debt threshold was achieved by Smooth Transition Regression method . Results show that in the considered time period, the average government debt to GDP was around 60%, but threshold was estimated 46%. In other words, passing threshold causes by increasing government debts and probability of government inability to debts repayment, consumption of private sector will be reduced indirectly. So Policy makers in Iran cannot leverage government debt as a positive expansion in Iran's economy.https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_37021_7fc2e837c73d955ce1144ab2d5d765a7.pdfMofid UniversityThe Journal of Economic Studies and Policies2423-46485220181023The Effect of Knowledge Economy Components on Iran's Economic ComplexityThe Effect of Knowledge Economy Components on Iran's Economic Complexity12514839813FAAbolfazlShahabadiProfessor, Department of Economics, Al-Zahra University0000-0002-9316-8296MaryamHosseiniMA student, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan, IranJournal Article20180422The economic complexity index indicates the extent and variety of the export basket of a country. Studies have shown that countries that, in addition to diversifying products, have sophisticated manufacturing products, are usually more economically advanced and are expected to have faster economic growth. Also, the impact of the components of the knowledge economy on the economic complexity in the form of large and complex networks will enable them to produce a set of knowledgeable goods. Therefore, the present study examines the effect of knowledge economy components on the economic complexity of Iran using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) during the period of 1975-2016. The results show that components of knowledge economy such as trade openness, information and communication technology and innovation and invention have positive and significant effects on the economic complexity of Iran. Therefore, it is recommended to take serious measures in order to connect the universities and industry and provide practical training to prepare students for entering the industry and the country products.The economic complexity index indicates the extent and variety of the export basket of a country. Studies have shown that countries that, in addition to diversifying products, have sophisticated manufacturing products, are usually more economically advanced and are expected to have faster economic growth. Also, the impact of the components of the knowledge economy on the economic complexity in the form of large and complex networks will enable them to produce a set of knowledgeable goods. Therefore, the present study examines the effect of knowledge economy components on the economic complexity of Iran using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) during the period of 1975-2016. The results show that components of knowledge economy such as trade openness, information and communication technology and innovation and invention have positive and significant effects on the economic complexity of Iran. Therefore, it is recommended to take serious measures in order to connect the universities and industry and provide practical training to prepare students for entering the industry and the country products.https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_39813_4fa302c679e1aa216f3c5163c487a2cb.pdf