Mofid University The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies 2423-4648 3 2 2017 02 19 The Causal Dynamics among Output, Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions in Iran: a Threshold Analysis The Causal Dynamics among Output, Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions in Iran: a Threshold Analysis 3 34 29784 FA Akbar Komijani Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran Masoud Salehi Rezveh Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, (Corresponding Author) 0000-0002-0510-4656 Mohammad Bakhshi Zadeh Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom Journal Article 2017 01 30 This paper examines the causal dynamics among energy use, real GDp and CO2 emissions in the presence of regime shifts in Iran during 1347-1393 with using the Gregory and Hansen (1996a) threshold cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality techniques. A key aspect of this study is to investigate the influence of the Regime shift on the tri-variate relationship among these variables. Results confirm the presence of regime shift effects in the long run inter-linkages among energy use, real GDp and CO2 emissions in Iran thus, indicating that the structural changes have both economic and environmental effects. Also, the results of the causality test reveal existence of uni-directional causality from economic growth and energy use to carbon emissions and bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption. Thus, energy-efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions. Hence, integration of energy and environmental policies into development plans is imperative towards attaining sustainable growth and development. This paper examines the causal dynamics among energy use, real GDp and CO2 emissions in the presence of regime shifts in Iran during 1347-1393 with using the Gregory and Hansen (1996a) threshold cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality techniques. A key aspect of this study is to investigate the influence of the Regime shift on the tri-variate relationship among these variables. Results confirm the presence of regime shift effects in the long run inter-linkages among energy use, real GDp and CO2 emissions in Iran thus, indicating that the structural changes have both economic and environmental effects. Also, the results of the causality test reveal existence of uni-directional causality from economic growth and energy use to carbon emissions and bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption. Thus, energy-efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions. Hence, integration of energy and environmental policies into development plans is imperative towards attaining sustainable growth and development.

https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_29784_534e33e3c3e71bddf1dba0a0e00c814c.pdf

Mofid University The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies 2423-4648 3 2 2017 02 19 Examining the Philips Curve Collapse for Iranian Economy after the Great Recession Examining the Philips Curve Collapse for Iranian Economy after the Great Recession 37 70 29785 FA Nasser Elahi Associate Professor of Mofid University Economics 0000-0002-3313-3366 Amirhossein Najafzadeh Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, (Corresponding Author) Mitra Olia .D. Student, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, Iran Journal Article 2015 12 19 The relationship between real activity of an economy and the rate of inflation is one of the noteworthy issues in the field of macroeconomic. The majority of economic literature has focused on the use of the Philips curve in order to discover and clarify the the relationship between the real economic activity and the rate of inflation. The first Phillips curve has been criticized in the theoretical grounds, but in response to these criticisms, various forms of Phillips curve has developed; in which New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC) is one of them. Several types of research show that the Phillips curve relationship seemed to have broken down during the Great Recession. The basis for this argument is the observation that real activity dropped sharply without generating a corresponding drop in inflation. In this research, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach and by applying NKPC we test this hypothesis for the Iranian economy. According to the results, there is a sharp drop in output without a corresponding decline in inflation. The relationship between real activity of an economy and the rate of inflation is one of the noteworthy issues in the field of macroeconomic. The majority of economic literature has focused on the use of the Philips curve in order to discover and clarify the the relationship between the real economic activity and the rate of inflation. The first Phillips curve has been criticized in the theoretical grounds, but in response to these criticisms, various forms of Phillips curve has developed; in which New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC) is one of them. Several types of research show that the Phillips curve relationship seemed to have broken down during the Great Recession. The basis for this argument is the observation that real activity dropped sharply without generating a corresponding drop in inflation. In this research, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach and by applying NKPC we test this hypothesis for the Iranian economy. According to the results, there is a sharp drop in output without a corresponding decline in inflation.

https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_29785_08c48adc90c8525f8ca1f8d727b5780c.pdf

Mofid University The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies 2423-4648 3 2 2017 02 19 The Relationship between Risk and Foreign Direct Investment in Selected Developing Countries (Dynamic Panel Data Approach) The Relationship between Risk and Foreign Direct Investment in Selected Developing Countries (Dynamic Panel Data Approach) 71 104 29786 FA Habib Ansari Samani Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics Management and Accounting Yazd University Zahra Mahmudi Master of Science in Economics Planning, University of vali Asr Simin Namdari Master of Science in Economics Planning, University of vali Asr, Journal Article 2016 04 27 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one of the most stable sources of foreign financing that not only does not have foreign borrowing problems, but also is one of important factors of economic growth and development, the removal of the investment-saving gap, the transfer of technology and new managerial methods. Foreign investors prefer to invest in their country if they expect high and stable returns on foreign investment. It depends on many factors and, most importantly, on stability. Therefore, this study examines the effects of three types of economic, financial, and political risks on FDIs for the period 2000-2014 for 17 developing countries and uses Panel ECM through the FMOLS method. The results show the long-run negative and significant effect of all three financial, economic, and political risks on FDI. Political and financial risks do not have a significant effect on foreign direct investment in the short term. The coefficient of trade openness variables, inflation rate and real GDP are positive and significant and the real exchange rate coefficient is negative and significant. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one of the most stable sources of foreign financing that not only does not have foreign borrowing problems, but also is one of important factors of economic growth and development, the removal of the investment-saving gap, the transfer of technology and new managerial methods. Foreign investors prefer to invest in their country if they expect high and stable returns on foreign investment. It depends on many factors and, most importantly, on stability. Therefore, this study examines the effects of three types of economic, financial, and political risks on FDIs for the period 2000-2014 for 17 developing countries and uses Panel ECM through the FMOLS method. The results show the long-run negative and significant effect of all three financial, economic, and political risks on FDI. Political and financial risks do not have a significant effect on foreign direct investment in the short term. The coefficient of trade openness variables, inflation rate and real GDP are positive and significant and the real exchange rate coefficient is negative and significant.

https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_29786_12b2fce48d921b502cb67aaf23df662f.pdf

Mofid University The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies 2423-4648 3 2 2017 02 19 The Effects of Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Variables on Non-Performing Loans of Selected Iranian Banks The Effects of Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Variables on Non-Performing Loans of Selected Iranian Banks 105 122 29787 FA Mehrshad Komijani M.A in Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research unit, Jamshid Pajooyan Professor of Economics, University of Allameh Farhad Ghaffari Associate Professor of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research unit Journal Article 2016 10 28 Non-performing loans (NPLs) constitute one of the main supervisory indices and indicate the weakness of banks in financing various economic sectors. This is especially true in Iranian economy in which the banking system shoulders the burden of providing financial resources. However, the Iranian economy is categorized as a bank-based one. At present situation, parts of the assets are frozen in the form of non-performing loans to government and non-government sectors, and thus the banks will be exposed to various risks which cause instability in banking sector and macroeconomic situation. The current paper intends to analyze the causes of the NPLs and estimate the role of macroeconomic as well as bank-specific variables. For this purpose, the study used panel data models to investigate the causes of NPLs in 19 banks on a quarterly basis during 2008 to 2015. Results of the model testing offer an estimation of the effects of each group of macroeconomic and bank-specific variables on NPLs. The model attributes a stronger effect to bank-specific variables compared to macroeconomic ones. However, the role of macroeconomic variables such as economic growth cannot be ignored. Non-performing loans (NPLs) constitute one of the main supervisory indices and indicate the weakness of banks in financing various economic sectors. This is especially true in Iranian economy in which the banking system shoulders the burden of providing financial resources. However, the Iranian economy is categorized as a bank-based one. At present situation, parts of the assets are frozen in the form of non-performing loans to government and non-government sectors, and thus the banks will be exposed to various risks which cause instability in banking sector and macroeconomic situation. The current paper intends to analyze the causes of the NPLs and estimate the role of macroeconomic as well as bank-specific variables. For this purpose, the study used panel data models to investigate the causes of NPLs in 19 banks on a quarterly basis during 2008 to 2015. Results of the model testing offer an estimation of the effects of each group of macroeconomic and bank-specific variables on NPLs. The model attributes a stronger effect to bank-specific variables compared to macroeconomic ones. However, the role of macroeconomic variables such as economic growth cannot be ignored.

https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_29787_2661d3ecfd1458a72d642c635f4972ce.pdf

Mofid University The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies 2423-4648 3 2 2017 02 19 The Effect of Money and Capital Market Development on Growth of Value Added in the Industrial Sector in Iran Using Principal Component Analysis The Effect of Money and Capital Market Development on Growth of Value Added in the Industrial Sector in Iran Using Principal Component Analysis 123 148 29788 FA Abolfazl Shahabadi Professor, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu Ali Sina University Ali Moradi M.A of Economics, Islamic Azad University of Arak Maysam Norozi M.A of Economics, Islamic Azad University of Arak Journal Article 2016 08 29 The existence of backward and forward relationship among different industrial sectors together and with other sectors of the economy (agriculture, construction and services) has led to the importance of industry in the national economy to be higher than its share in GDP. On the other hand, developed financial markets introduced as the factors affecting the growth of value added in industry sector. According to the structure of Iran financing system, the present research study the effect of the development of the financial markets of the money and capital markets on growth of value added of industrial sector in Iran during 1990-2013. Therefore, using principal component analysis through the five indicators of money market development and three indicators of capital market development, a composite index related to each market has extracted and then estimated research model in three different modes and using fully modified version of ordinary least square method. Results suggest a significant positive impact on the development of money and capital on the growth of value added of industrial sector of Iran during the period under review. Also, the coefficient of expansion of the money market is larger than the coefficient of capital market development that verified Bank-based supply financing system in Iran. The existence of backward and forward relationship among different industrial sectors together and with other sectors of the economy (agriculture, construction and services) has led to the importance of industry in the national economy to be higher than its share in GDP. On the other hand, developed financial markets introduced as the factors affecting the growth of value added in industry sector. According to the structure of Iran financing system, the present research study the effect of the development of the financial markets of the money and capital markets on growth of value added of industrial sector in Iran during 1990-2013. Therefore, using principal component analysis through the five indicators of money market development and three indicators of capital market development, a composite index related to each market has extracted and then estimated research model in three different modes and using fully modified version of ordinary least square method. Results suggest a significant positive impact on the development of money and capital on the growth of value added of industrial sector of Iran during the period under review. Also, the coefficient of expansion of the money market is larger than the coefficient of capital market development that verified Bank-based supply financing system in Iran.

https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_29788_c6fc35734a1a498915984159907854e9.pdf

Mofid University The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies 2423-4648 3 2 2017 02 19 A Survey on Information Asymmetry in the Periods before the Announcement of Adjusted Profitability in Tehran Stock Exchange A Survey on Information Asymmetry in the Periods before the Announcement of Adjusted Profitability in Tehran Stock Exchange 149 174 29789 FA Seyyed Hadi Arabi Associate Professor of Economics, Qom University Ali Lotfi Ph.D. Student of financial laws, Farabi Pardis, University of Tehran Journal Article 2015 11 23 Reducing information asymmetry among investors and securities market participants is always a policy objective of regulators. Reducing the information asymmetry between investors through the creation of equal opportunities helps to increase the level of market efficiency. In this study, to verify the existence of information asymmetry in Tehran Stock Exchange, the shares with the highest market value was chosen between the years 1393-1388 and the stock returns in two, five and ten days before the public announcement of increasing profitability (more than 30%), evaluated and compared with dividend & price index (TEDPIX). Positive abnormal stock returns in this period confirmed the positive adjustment from the perspective of information asymmetry in Tehran Stock Exchange. In case of decreasing profitability the same result could not be verified. To deepen the results the P/E filter was used. The P/E filter improved the results but the improvement is not significant in the level of 95% Reducing information asymmetry among investors and securities market participants is always a policy objective of regulators. Reducing the information asymmetry between investors through the creation of equal opportunities helps to increase the level of market efficiency. In this study, to verify the existence of information asymmetry in Tehran Stock Exchange, the shares with the highest market value was chosen between the years 1393-1388 and the stock returns in two, five and ten days before the public announcement of increasing profitability (more than 30%), evaluated and compared with dividend & price index (TEDPIX). Positive abnormal stock returns in this period confirmed the positive adjustment from the perspective of information asymmetry in Tehran Stock Exchange. In case of decreasing profitability the same result could not be verified. To deepen the results the P/E filter was used. The P/E filter improved the results but the improvement is not significant in the level of 95%

https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_29789_87fc1fd2316e69d5c46396b47ed63b0a.pdf