نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه تبریز
3 کارشناس ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده
هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای پولی بر نرخ ارز در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (MENA) می‌باشد. برای این منظور با استفاده از تکنیک اقتصاد‌سنجی پانل دیتا طی دوره (۲۰۰۵- ۱۹۷۵) مدل پولی نرخ ارز تخمین زده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق دلالت بر این دارد که متغیرهای پولی اختلاف نرخ تورم، اختلاف حجم نقدینگی و نرخ بهره حقیقی تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار و اختلاف متغیر تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی تأثیر منفی و معنی‌دار بر نرخ ارز اسمی داشته است. از این رو مهمترین توصیه سیاستی تحقیق برای برای تقویت ارزش پول داخلی[1] این کشورها و به ویژه برای ایران این است که مقامات اقتصادی کشور با اتخاذ سیاسست‌های مالی، پولی و تجاری مناسب، حجم نقدینگی، نرخ تورم و نرخ بهره حقیقی را کاهش داده و با اقدامات مناسب زمینه را برای رشد اقتصادی کشور فراهم نمایند.
[1]. Appreciation
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate: Case Study in MENA Countries
نویسندگان [English]
- Hossein Asgharpur 1
- Ali Rezazadeh 2
- Majid Feshari 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Tabriz University
2 Master student of Economics, University of Tabriz
3 Master of Economic Development and Planning, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]
The monetary approach happens to be one of the oldest approaches to determine the exchange rate changes. This paper investigates the monetary variables effects on nominal exchange rate in Middle East and North African Countries (MENA). For this purpose, panel data econometrics technique has applied during 1975-2005 period .
The empirical results indicate that the monetary model is able to convincingly explain the exchange rates behavior in MENA Countries. In fact, empirical evidence implies that there is a significant relationship between nominal exchange rate and monetary variables such as liquidity differential, output differential, real interest rate differential in Middle East and North African countries.
Hence, by decreasing the real interest rate and liquidity growth and increasing economic growth, the policy makers can improve the exchange rates in these countries, particularly in Iran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Exchange Rate
- Monetary Approach
- Panel Data
- Mena
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