عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
This study deals with Iranian business cycles and analysis of their causes. In this study the time series of variables consisting national income and the other influential variables in creating business cycles have been used and all the data with annual frequency are considered as logarithmic and the fixed price of 1997. The period of study is between 1971 and 2007. In other to extract the business cycles, the statistic at method of Hodrick-Prescott Filter (HP) was used and the Business Cycles Indicators of lag. Lead and coincident variables were recognized. After wards, the lead variable were analyzed based on linear regression model of business cycles and also on the advanced econometric method called Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), and the contribution of each above variables were determined in creating fluctuations of real gross domestic product (GDP). The estimated coefficients showed that the oil & gas export variables have a positive impact and the oil price variable has had negative impact on business cycles in Iran.