پویایی درآمد سرانه در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس مطالعات اقتصادی وزارت صنعت، معدن و تجارت

2 دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری دانشگاه مازندران

10.22096/esp.2013.26125

چکیده

در این تحقیق پویایی درآمد سرانه ایران با استفاده از داده‌های GDP سرانه واقعی - داده‌های تاریخی مدیسون (2010) - و آزمون پایایی کرین - ای - سیلوستره و همکاران (2005) طی دوره 1329-1387 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهند، اقتصاد ایران طی دوره 1334 تا اواسط دهه 1350 دوران طلایی را تجربه نمود و اگر این روند ادامه می‌یافت اکنون می‌توانست در باشگاه کشورهای با درآمد سرانه بالا قرار گیرد اما به خاطر سیاست‌های اقتصادی اجرا شده بعد از شوک نفتی اول، تحولات سیاسی - اجتماعی دهه 1350، جنگ تحمیلی هشت ساله عراق علیه ایران و تحریم‌های اقتصادی، سطح درآمد سرانه ایران آن چنان کاهش یافت که با فرض تداوم رشد اقتصادی دهه 1380 (یعنی متوسط رشد سالیانه 4 درصد)، درآمد سرانه حدوداً نوزده سال با سطح پیش‌بینی شده بر اساس دوران طلایی[1] فاصله دارد.



.[1] در این مقاله، اواسط دهه 1330 تا اواسط دهه 1350 را دوران طلایی نامیدیم.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Per Capita Income Dynamics in Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Omid Ranjbar 1
  • Zahra (Mila) Elmi 2
چکیده [English]

In this paper, we analysis the dynamics of per capita income by using Carrion –i- Silvestre et al. (2005) stationary test over the period 1950-2008. We use the Madison historical data. The Results show that Iran economy experienced a golden period over 1955-1976, and if this trend had been continued, Iran could be in high per capita income club countries. Because of economic policies after first oil shock, political – social changes in the1970s, the 1980-88 war with Iraq, economic sanctions and the oil price collapse in the year 1986, the GDP per Capita in Iran has fallen so much that if the Iranian economy were growing at an average rate of 4 % a year (economic growth in the 2000s), there would be a gap of 19 years between GDP per capita in 2008 and its forecast for this year.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • The Economic Growth of Iran
  • Carrion et al Unit Root Test (2005)
  • Structural Breaks
  • Forecasting

الف- فارسی

  1. رنجبر، امید؛ علمی، زهرا (میلا)؛ «تحلیل شکل‌گیری همگرایی اقتصادی در منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا: یافته‌های جدید»، 1387، نامه مفید، شماره 66.

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